New Paper on Complexity Theory and Peace-Conflict Situations

Diane Hendricks has written a working paper that adds another piece of research to the exploration of how complexity theory might translate from the natural sciences to the social sciences. Her area of interest is in peace and conflict studies. Here is a paragraph from the Introduction:

Complexity theory in the natural sciences has brought fresh insight into the nature and working of complex systems and some have hoped that applying this theory to social systems, albeit necessarily in an adapted form, could be equally revealing and useful. I confess to being among their number although the degree and extent of the usefulness and applicability of complexity in these areas is not yet clear to me. I am, however, convinced of the potential to, at the very least, facilitate a more realistic (i.e. closer to the reality of how the social world works) and open approach to analysis and action for change. This working paper is an exploration of ideas, opinions and attempts related to the application of complexity theory to the field of conflict transformation and some early reflections on these.

These are important explorations and we are only beginning to understand how complexity theory might apply. We need to carefully work through whether there is something of substance in this approach or whether it is a fad that turns out to lack real explanatory power for organizing and designing human institutions and the resulting interactions. I am, like Diane, optimistic that there is indeed significant fruitfulness in researching these applications.

Parrot AR.Drone + SensorFly = Real-Time Artificial Flocking

This is among the most cool flying things I've seen in a while. I grew up designing, building and flying various types of airplanes form the kind with wires to freeflight to full-feature radio controlled craft.

The iPhone-controlled Parrot AR.Drone is wonderfully imaginative and, combined the autonomously controlled SensorFly from Carnegie Mellon, opens up new worlds for small flying applications. Complexity theory will play into how groups or flocks of SensorFly devices interact and move.

Interactive genetic algorithms allow users to provide input on software-generated outcomes and such an approach would work well with a Parrot device + multiple SensorFly devices. The flock finds its way with nudging from an operator who might want to search a certain area.

Inspiring.

Andrew McAfee from MIT and Web 2.0

Technology impacts us socially and culturally long before we understand what that impact is. Given that business and organizational life of all kinds is deeply cultural, it is no surprise that changes in how we communicate, share ideas, collaborate and assess value will not leave our enterprises unscathed. Many aspects of our current thinking, many inherited 'common sense' defaults, and assorted default habits need to be reconsidered.

Munk Debates

Rob Joustra and I attended the Munk Debates last night at the new Koerner Concert Hall in downtown Toronto. It was an entertaining evening. Rob has written a good review of it on the Cardus After Hours blog.

It was obvious that the trick of the debate was to find a balance between actual rational/scientific heft and populist stage tactics designed to fling various kinds of mud in quasi-dignified ways.

There was a fair amount of common stock put in modelling future states of the global climate. My problem with that is the inherent difficulty (perhaps impossibility) of determining what the future state of a massively complex system like the global climate might be.

Weather isn't linear. Moving up the scale of complexity to climate doesn't improve things much. It's tricky to get a bead on precisely what the actual conditions are today, never mind being definitive about what the climate will be like in 50 years. Our use of resources and our incontrovertible wastefulness is evident all over the globe. The disparity around the planet doesn't require complex computer modelling to discern and remains a very critical issue.

I also wonder how average citizens are supposed to sort out all the rhetoric, expert mortar attacks, and climatologist personality wrangles in arriving at an informed and useful position. Add to the mix politicians and angling journalists and the confusion appears to be driving things toward some sort of darkly comic confusion.

Debates drive polarization and the effect of last nights encounter was to push things closer to a 50/50 split on the question of this being "the most pressing concern" that we face. The debate wasn't about climate issues being critical. Rather, it was about climate change being the most critical issue that we face.

I was disappointed that no one mentioned near-earth-objects. If a big enough chunk of rock hits us, change will be abrupt and cataclysmic - perhaps something new to worry about if you are feeling fatigue over the environment or H1N1 fear-mongering.

Great Training - Cognitive Edge in Toronto

Here is another video that explains how Cognitive Edge uses complexity theory to generate valuable insight from narrative fragments using their SenseMaker software.

Also, there is a Cognitive Edge seminar coming up on November 25/26 in Toronto. You can see the details here. There is also a one-day workshop on Nov 27 that provides help in running the SenseMaker software. Having attended a Cognitive Edge event in San Francisco, I can endorse the value of the process and solid grounding of their approach.

Volunteers and our Social Fabric

The volunteers who give time and money, the people who attend meetings, write letters, vote, and generally keep the common good machinery of society running are highly valuable. If they went away, government could not afford to pick up the slack. So what is the health of our Canadian civic core? Here's some reading from the research group I belong to that sheds some light on the question:

Complexity Theory - how it applies

The very sharp folks over at Cognitive Edge have put together a clean and simple video that explains at a very general level how complexity theory can inform organizational design, strategy and mapping. Dave Snowden, with characteristic humour, explains how a birthday party for kids could be organized in one of three ways and then ends with "and that's what complexity theory offers" for viewers.

I attended a training session with Cognitive Edge over a year ago on San Francisco and this is a welcome communication piece for complexity science.

Vertical Farming

This series of concepts on the Chris Jacobs website for high-density vertical farming is really intriguing to look at. I first read about this at work while going through a new issue of WIRED. What about putting these things in the middle of existing farming centres that are not too far from cities? There may be fewer issues and a bit less NIMBY but perhaps the economics of doing that would make it even tougher to sell than in cities.

I also think this would be a great way to make use of brownfield spaces in our cities - places where the soil is contaminated and can't be used in its current form. Build vertical farms in those spaces while remediation takes place below the ground with new technologies and sufficient safety measures in place. These brownfields are often in commercially valuable areas or near economic corridors.

Like many innovations, success comes from bringing together a number of drivers in such a way that a new, high value proposition emerges. Hopefully that will happen soon and we will be able to see some high-rise towers of food spring up. Having grown up on a farm, it would be interesting to take an elevator to the 21st floor to do some weeding or to dig potatoes.